Towards Comprehensive Observing and Modeling Systems for Monitoring and Predicting Regional to Coastal Sea Level
Résumé
A major challenge for managing impacts and implementing effective mitigation measures
and adaptation strategies for coastal zones affected by future sea level (SL) rise is our
limited capacity to predict SL change at the coast on relevant spatial and temporal
scales. Predicting coastal SL requires the ability to monitor and simulate a multitude
of physical processes affecting SL, from local effects of wind waves and river runoff to
remote influences of the large-scale ocean circulation on the coast. Here we assess
our current understanding of the causes of coastal SL variability on monthly to multidecadal
timescales, including geodetic, oceanographic and atmospheric aspects of
the problem, and review available observing systems informing on coastal SL. We also
review the ability of existing models and data assimilation systems to estimate coastal
SL variations and of atmosphere-ocean global coupled models and related regional
downscaling efforts to project future SL changes.We discuss (1) observational gaps and
uncertainties, and priorities for the development of an optimal and integrated coastal SL
observing system, (2) strategies for advancing model capabilities in forecasting shortterm
processes and projecting long-term changes affecting coastal SL, and (3) possible
future developments of sea level services enabling better connection of scientists and
user communities and facilitating assessment and decision making for adaptation to
future coastal SL change.
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