The diversity of population responses to environmental change
Fernando Colchero
(1)
,
Owen r. Jones
(1)
,
Dalia Conde
(1)
,
David M. Hodgson
(2)
,
Felix Zajitschek
(3)
,
Benedikt Schmidt
(4)
,
Aurelio Malo
(5)
,
Susan Alberts
(6)
,
Peter Becker
(7)
,
Sandra Bouwhuis
(8)
,
Anne Bronikowski
(9)
,
Kristel Vleeschouwer
(10)
,
Richard Delahay
(11)
,
Stefan Dummermuth
(12)
,
Eduardo Fernández‐duque
(13)
,
John Frisenvænge
(14)
,
Martin Hesselsøe
(14)
,
Sam Larson
(15)
,
Jean-François Lemaître
(16)
,
Jennifer Mcdonald
(17)
,
David Miller
(18)
,
Colin O'Donnell
(19)
,
Craig Packer
(20)
,
Becky Raboy
(21)
,
Chris Reading
(22)
,
Erik Wapstra
(23)
,
Henri Weimerskirch
(24)
,
Geoffrey While
(24)
,
Anne Baudisch
(25)
,
Thomas Flatt
(26)
,
Tim Coulson
(27)
,
Jean‐michel Gaillard
(16)
1
Interdisciplinary Center on Population Dynamics
2 University of Leeds
3 Evolution and Ecology Research Centre and School of Biological [Australia]
4 UZH - Universität Zürich [Zürich] = University of Zurich
5 Department of Zoology [Oxford]
6 Duke University [Durham]
7 Institut of Avian Research An der Vogelwarte [Germany]
8 Institute of Avian Research
9 Department of Ecology, Evolution and Organismal Biology
10 Centre for Research and Conservation [Belgium]
11 National Wildlife Management Centre [UK]
12 Info Fauna Karch 2000
13 Department of Anthropology [New Haven, USA]
14 Amphi Consult [Denmark]
15 Department of Anthropology [University of Pennsylvania]
16 LBBE - Laboratoire de Biométrie et Biologie Evolutive - UMR 5558
17 University of Exeter
18 Department of Ecosystem Science and Management [USA]
19 Department of Conservation [Christchurch, New Zealand]
20 College of Biological Sciences [USA]
21 EEB - Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology [University of Toronto]
22 Centre for Ecology and Hydrology [Oxfordhire, UK]
23 School of Biological Sciences [Australia]
24 CEBC - Centre d'Études Biologiques de Chizé - UMR 7372
25 Department of Mathematics and Computer Science [Denmark]
26 Department of Ecology and Evolution
27 Department of Zoology
2 University of Leeds
3 Evolution and Ecology Research Centre and School of Biological [Australia]
4 UZH - Universität Zürich [Zürich] = University of Zurich
5 Department of Zoology [Oxford]
6 Duke University [Durham]
7 Institut of Avian Research An der Vogelwarte [Germany]
8 Institute of Avian Research
9 Department of Ecology, Evolution and Organismal Biology
10 Centre for Research and Conservation [Belgium]
11 National Wildlife Management Centre [UK]
12 Info Fauna Karch 2000
13 Department of Anthropology [New Haven, USA]
14 Amphi Consult [Denmark]
15 Department of Anthropology [University of Pennsylvania]
16 LBBE - Laboratoire de Biométrie et Biologie Evolutive - UMR 5558
17 University of Exeter
18 Department of Ecosystem Science and Management [USA]
19 Department of Conservation [Christchurch, New Zealand]
20 College of Biological Sciences [USA]
21 EEB - Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology [University of Toronto]
22 Centre for Ecology and Hydrology [Oxfordhire, UK]
23 School of Biological Sciences [Australia]
24 CEBC - Centre d'Études Biologiques de Chizé - UMR 7372
25 Department of Mathematics and Computer Science [Denmark]
26 Department of Ecology and Evolution
27 Department of Zoology
Fernando Colchero
- Fonction : Auteur
- PersonId : 795893
- ORCID : 0000-0001-8613-4568
Dalia Conde
- Fonction : Auteur
- PersonId : 795894
- ORCID : 0000-0002-7923-8163
Benedikt Schmidt
- Fonction : Auteur
- PersonId : 770573
- ORCID : 0000-0002-4023-1001
Sandra Bouwhuis
- Fonction : Auteur
- PersonId : 791299
- ORCID : 0000-0003-4023-1578
Jean-François Lemaître
- Fonction : Auteur
- PersonId : 21692
- IdHAL : jean-francois-lemaitre
- ORCID : 0000-0001-9898-2353
- IdRef : 199291675
Craig Packer
- Fonction : Auteur
- PersonId : 758910
- ORCID : 0000-0002-3939-8162
Erik Wapstra
- Fonction : Auteur
- PersonId : 795895
- ORCID : 0000-0002-2050-8026
Henri Weimerskirch
- Fonction : Auteur
- PersonId : 843734
- ORCID : 0000-0002-0457-586X
- IdRef : 031823548
Thomas Flatt
- Fonction : Auteur
- PersonId : 1001436
- ORCID : 0000-0002-5990-1503
Jean‐michel Gaillard
- Fonction : Auteur
- PersonId : 178430
- IdHAL : jean-michel-gaillard
- ORCID : 0000-0003-0174-8451
- IdRef : 033762406
Résumé
The current extinction and climate change crises pressure us to predict population dynamics with
ever-greater accuracy. Although predictions rest on the well-advanced theory of age-structured
populations, two key issues remain poorly explored. Specifically, how the age-dependency in
demographic rates and the year-to-year interactions between survival and fecundity affect stochastic
population growth rates. We use inference, simulations and mathematical derivations to
explore how environmental perturbations determine population growth rates for populations with
different age-specific demographic rates and when ages are reduced to stages. We find that stagevs.
age-based models can produce markedly divergent stochastic population growth rates. The differences
are most pronounced when there are survival-fecundity-trade-offs, which reduce the variance
in the population growth rate. Finally, the expected value and variance of the stochastic
growth rates of populations with different age-specific demographic rates can diverge to the extent
that, while some populations may thrive, others will inevitably go extinct.