Risk and refugee migration
Résumé
This paper uses the experimental setup of Tanaka et al. (2010) to measure refugees’ risk
preferences. A sample of 206 asylum seekers was interviewed in 2017-18 in Luxembourg.
Contrary to studies which focus on risk aversion in general, we analyze its components
using a cumulative prospect theory (CPT) frame-work. We show that refugees exhibit
particularly low levels of risk aversion compared to other populations and that CPT provides
a better fit for modelling risk attitudes. Moreover, we include randomised temporary
treatments provoking emotions and find a small significant impact on probability distortion.
Robustness of the Tanaka et al. (2010) experimental framework is confirmed by including
treatments regarding the embedding effect. Finally, we propose a theoretical model of
refugee migration that integrates the insights from our experimental outcomes regarding
the functional form of refugees’ decision under risk and the estimated parameter values.
The model is then simulated using the data from our study.
Origine | Accord explicite pour ce dépôt |
---|
Loading...