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            <title xml:lang="fr">Relation Dette – Croissance Économique dans la CEDEAO: Analyse à travers une Approche Non-Linéaire</title>
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                <forename type="first">Kossi M.</forename>
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            <idno type="halRefHtml">&lt;i&gt;Revue Economique et Monétaire&lt;/i&gt;, 2019, 26, pp.9-33</idno>
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                <title xml:lang="fr">Relation Dette – Croissance Économique dans la CEDEAO: Analyse à travers une Approche Non-Linéaire</title>
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                    <forename type="first">Kossi M.</forename>
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                    <forename type="first">Léleng</forename>
                    <surname>Kebalo</surname>
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                  <biblScope unit="pp">9-33</biblScope>
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                <term xml:lang="fr">CEDEAO</term>
                <term xml:lang="fr">Seuils endogènes</term>
                <term xml:lang="fr">Politique budgétaire</term>
                <term xml:lang="fr">Croissance économique</term>
                <term xml:lang="fr">Dette du gouvernement central</term>
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              <classCode scheme="jel" n="H.H6.H63">H - Public Economics/H.H6 - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt/H.H6.H63 - Debt • Debt Management • Sovereign Debt</classCode>
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              <p>In the context of the worrying new rise in central government debt in ECOWAS, this article determines through a non-linear approach, the debt threshold not to be exceeded so that central government debt has a positive effect on economic growth. By adopting Hansen's (1999) approach, the analysis carried out over the period 2007-2016 reveals the existence of a debt threshold estimated at 30.71% of GDP, threshold below which any additional debt has a positive effect on economic growth. Conversely, above 30.71% of GDP, central government debt has a negative effect on economic growth. The threshold estimated in this article corroborates those in the recent literature. Nevertheless, it should not be considered as a static, optimal threshold that could compromise the validity of the budgetary norm in force in the region, which limits the debt to 70% of GDP. The gap between the two thresholds is due to the fact that the estimated threshold is endogenous, i.e. it takes into account the debt behaviour over the period considered in this paper. The article then proposes economic policies for making fiscal policies more effective, for slowing the rise in debt levels, and finally discusses the potential consequences of the rapid increase in debt on the West African regional monetary integration process.</p>
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              <p>Dans le contexte de la nouvelle montée inquiétante de la dette du gouvernement central dans la CEDEAO, cet article détermine à travers une approche non linéaire, le seuil d'endettement à ne pas excéder de sorte que la dette du gouvernement central ait un effet positif sur la croissance économique. En adoptant l'approche de Hansen (1999), les estimations effectuées sur la période 2007-2016 révèlent l'existence d'un seuil d'endettement estimé à 30,71% du PIB ; seuil en dessous duquel une dette additionnelle a un effet positif sur la croissance économique. En revanche, au-delà de 30,71% du PIB, la dette du gouvernement central a un effet négatif sur la croissance économique. Le seuil estimé dans cet article corrobore ceux de la littérature récente. Néanmoins, il ne doit pas être considéré comme un seuil statique, optimal et pouvant remettre en cause la norme budgétaire en vigueur au sein de la région qui limite la dette à 70% du PIB. L'écart entre les deux seuils est dû au fait que celui estimé est endogène, c'est-à-dire qu'il tient compte du comportement de la dette sur la période d'analyse considérée. L'article propose par la suite des politiques économiques pour rendre plus efficaces les politiques budgétaires, pour ralentir la progression du niveau d'endettement, et discute des conséquences potentielles de la hausse rapide de la dette sur le processus d'intégration monétaire régionale ouest-africaine.</p>
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          <orgName>Université de Lomé [Togo]</orgName>
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