Optimal Dynamic Line Rating Forecasts Selection Based on Ampacity Probabilistic Forecasting and Network Operators' Risk Aversion - Archive ouverte HAL Access content directly
Journal Articles IEEE Transactions on Power Systems Year : 2019

Optimal Dynamic Line Rating Forecasts Selection Based on Ampacity Probabilistic Forecasting and Network Operators' Risk Aversion

Abstract

Real-time current-carrying capacity of overhead conductors is extremely variable due to its dependence on weather conditions, resulting in the use of traditionally conservative static ratings. This paper proposes a methodology for exploiting the latent current-carrying capacity of overhead transmission lines taking into account line ampacity forecasts, power flow simulations and the network operator's risk aversion. The procedure can be described as follows: Firstly, probabilistic forecasts for the current rating of transmission lines are generated, paying particular attention to the reliability of the lower part of the distribution. Secondly, a cost benefit analysis is carried out by solving a bilevel stochastic problem that takes into account the reduction in generation costs resulting from a higher power transfer capacity and the increased use of reserves caused by forecast errors. The risk appetite of the network operator is considered in order to accept or penalize high-risk situations, depending on whether the network operator can be described as risk neutral or risk averse.
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Dates and versions

hal-01998856 , version 1 (12-02-2019)

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Cite

Romain Dupin, Andrea Michiorri, Georges Kariniotakis. Optimal Dynamic Line Rating Forecasts Selection Based on Ampacity Probabilistic Forecasting and Network Operators' Risk Aversion. IEEE Transactions on Power Systems, inPress, pp.1-1. ⟨10.1109/TPWRS.2018.2889973⟩. ⟨hal-01998856⟩
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