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Article Dans Une Revue Chaos: An Interdisciplinary Journal of Nonlinear Science Année : 2017

Synchronization of world economic activity

Résumé

Common dynamical properties of business cycle fluctuations are studied in a sample of more than 100 countries that represent economic regions from all around the world. We apply the methodology of multivariate singular spectrum analysis (M-SSA) to identify oscillatory modes and to detect whether these modes are shared by clusters of phase- and frequency-locked oscillators. An extension of the M-SSA approach is introduced to help analyze structural changes in the cluster configuration of synchronization. With this novel technique, we are able to identify a common mode of business cycle activity across our sample, and thus point to the existence of a world business cycle. Superimposed on this mode, we further identify several major events that have markedly influenced the landscape of world economic activity in the postwar era.
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Dates et versions

hal-01701086 , version 1 (05-02-2018)

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Andreas Groth, Michael Ghil. Synchronization of world economic activity. Chaos: An Interdisciplinary Journal of Nonlinear Science, 2017, 27 (12), ⟨10.1063/1.5001820⟩. ⟨hal-01701086⟩
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