Macroeconomic forecasting during the Great Recession: the return of non-linearity?
Résumé
The debate on the forecasting ability of non-linear models has a long history,
and the Great Recession episode provides us with an interesting opportunity
for a reassessment of the forecasting performance of several classes of nonlinear
models. We conduct an extensive analysis over a large quarterly
database consisting of major macroeconomic variables for a large panel of
countries. It turns out that, on average, non-linear models cannot outperform
standard linear specifications, even during the Great Recession. However,
non-linear models lead to an improvement of the predictive accuracy in almost
40% of cases, and interesting specific patterns emerge among models,
variables and countries. These results suggest that this specific episode
seems to be characterized by a sequence of shocks with unusual large
magnitude, rather than by an increase in the degree of non-linearity of the
stochastic processes underlying the main macroeconomic time series.