Mixture Periodic GARCH Models: Theory and Applications
Résumé
This paper discusses mixture periodic GARCH (M-PGARCH) models
that constitute very flexible class of nonlinear time series models of the conditional
variance. It turns out that they are more parsimonious comparatively
to high-order MPARCH models. We first provide some probabilistic properties
of this class of models. We thus propose an estimation method based on the
Expectation-Maximization (EM) algorithm. Finally, we apply this methodology
to model the spot rates of the Algerian dinar against euro and U.S. dollar. This
empirical analysis shows that M-PGARCH models yield the best performance
among the competing models.