Macroeconomic modelling of electric cars penetration in EU28
Résumé
The contribution of CIRED to the EV-STEP research programme is centred on macroeconomic modelling through implementation of the IMACLIM-P model, in link with the bottom-up expertise developed by the TIMES PanEU model of the IER of the university of Stuttgart. Had time allowed, this linking would have taken the form of an iterative implementation of both models with exchange of outputs, up to convergence on the TIMES energy system trends (outputs of TIMES, inputs of IMACLIM)1 and on GDP (output of IMACLIM, input of TIMES). The EV-STEP programme turned out to provide too-limited resources, many of which had to be devoted to time consuming, but inescapable, data issues (cf. Ghersi, 2014),2 to allow for this ‘first best’ modelling option. As a consequence we substantially modified our take on IMACLIM implementation to develop a ‘second best’ modelling option, which we describe in section 2 below. In section 3 we report and comment upon the consecutive modelling results, first for pessimistic industrial variants in which the European automobile industry barely dominates its own electric car (EC) market and does not succeed in accessing international markets; then for optimistic industrial variants in which European exports develop even beyond domestic demand. In section 4 we conclude.
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