Impact of Temporal Features of Cattle Exchanges on the Size and Speed of Epidemic Outbreaks - Archive ouverte HAL
Conference Papers Year : 2017

Impact of Temporal Features of Cattle Exchanges on the Size and Speed of Epidemic Outbreaks

Aurore Payen
  • Function : Author
  • PersonId : 1011156
Lionel Tabourier
  • Function : Author
Matthieu Latapy

Abstract

Databases recording cattle exchanges offer unique opportunities for a better understanding and fighting of disease spreading. Most studies model contacts with (sequences of) networks, but this approach neglects important dynamical features of exchanges, that are known to play a key role in spreading. We use here a fully dynamic modeling of contacts and empirically compare the spreading outbreaks obtained with it to the ones obtained with network approaches. We show that neglecting time information leads to significant overestimates of actual sizes of spreading cascades, and that these sizes are much more heterogeneous than generally assumed. Our approach also makes it possible to study the speed of spreading, and we show that the observed speeds vary greatly, even for a same cascade size.
Fichier principal
Vignette du fichier
Impact_of_Temporal_Features_of_Cattle_Exchanges_on_the_Size_and_Speed_of_Epidemic_Outbreaks.pdf (1.94 Mo) Télécharger le fichier
Origin Files produced by the author(s)
Loading...

Dates and versions

hal-01550334 , version 1 (29-06-2017)

Identifiers

  • HAL Id : hal-01550334 , version 1

Cite

Aurore Payen, Lionel Tabourier, Matthieu Latapy. Impact of Temporal Features of Cattle Exchanges on the Size and Speed of Epidemic Outbreaks. ICCSA 2017- Workshop Agricultural and Environmental Big Data Analytics , Jul 2017, Trieste, Italy. ⟨hal-01550334⟩
214 View
149 Download

Share

More