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Communication Dans Un Congrès Année : 2009

Impacts of stockholdings behaviours on agricultural market volatility: a dynamic Computable General Equilibrium approach

Résumé

The successive CAP reforms question its price stabilizing aspect and more and more attention is being paid to private risk managing instruments such as storage. The effects of storage have already been widely studied in economic literature. But almost none of these studies do account of the links between producers’, households’ and stockholders’ decisions as can a CGE model. Furthermore, the inter temporal decisions of these agents are generally not really taken into account when studying the effects of an instrument like storage allowing for inter temporal arbitrages. Finally, almost all of these studies focus on the effect of stockholdings on exogenous price volatility and assume rational expectations, which do not allow for the representation of the endogenous part, induced by market functioning, of risk; yet this endogenous risk has often been used to justify public intervention in agricultural markets. In this paper we build a model addressing these issues and conduct some illustrative simulations. Some of our results stand in contrast with the conclusions of previous economic studies concerning the effects of storage on market volatilities and reveal the importance of the role played by expectations of economic agents and by the links between their inter temporal decisions when studying such an instrument.
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Dates et versions

hal-01462683 , version 1 (08-02-2017)

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  • HAL Id : hal-01462683 , version 1
  • PRODINRA : 258229

Citer

Fabienne Femenia. Impacts of stockholdings behaviours on agricultural market volatility: a dynamic Computable General Equilibrium approach. IATRC Annual Meeting: "Private Standards and Non-Tariff Barriers: Measurement, Impacts and Legal Issues", International Agricultural Trade Research Consortium (IATRC). INT., Dec 2009, Fort Myers, United States. 21 p. ⟨hal-01462683⟩

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