To subsidize or not to subsidize private? Evaluation of the effects of private storage subsidies as an instrument to stabilize agricultural markets after CAP reforms
Résumé
We study here the effects on agricultural markets volatility of a public subsidy to private storage set up after a CAP reform. This kind of instrument is indeed often advocated in current international debates focusing on the management of agricultural price fluctuations. We use a dynamic Computable General Equilibrium model to simulate the welfare and market stabilizing impacts of such a subsidy. The model we use assumes that agents have imperfect expectations, which allows a representation of the endogenous dimension of agricultural market volatility. Our results corroborate the fact, often advocated, that removing the european price support scheme tends to increase the agricultural markets volatility in the European Union and to decrease this volatility in the rest of the world. Furthermore, we show that private stockholding behaviours allow a reduction of market volatility, both before and after the political reform. On the other hand, the set up of a public subsidy aimed at stimulating private stockholdings comes to scramble the market signals sent to agricultural producers and therefore has a destabilizing effect.
Origine : Fichiers éditeurs autorisés sur une archive ouverte
Loading...