<?xml version="1.0" encoding="utf-8"?>
<TEI xmlns="http://www.tei-c.org/ns/1.0" xmlns:xsi="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema-instance" xmlns:hal="http://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/" xmlns:gml="http://www.opengis.net/gml/3.3/" xmlns:gmlce="http://www.opengis.net/gml/3.3/ce" version="1.1" xsi:schemaLocation="http://www.tei-c.org/ns/1.0 http://api.archives-ouvertes.fr/documents/aofr-sword.xsd">
  <teiHeader>
    <fileDesc>
      <titleStmt>
        <title>HAL TEI export of hal-01387336</title>
      </titleStmt>
      <publicationStmt>
        <distributor>CCSD</distributor>
        <availability status="restricted">
          <licence target="https://creativecommons.org/publicdomain/zero/1.0/">CC0 1.0 - Universal</licence>
        </availability>
        <date when="2026-05-25T21:14:07+02:00"/>
      </publicationStmt>
      <sourceDesc>
        <p part="N">HAL API Platform</p>
      </sourceDesc>
    </fileDesc>
  </teiHeader>
  <text>
    <body>
      <listBibl>
        <biblFull>
          <titleStmt>
            <title xml:lang="en">Framing 100-year marine submersion hazard resulting from the propagation of 100-year joint hydrodynamic conditions</title>
            <author role="aut">
              <persName>
                <forename type="first">Alexandre</forename>
                <surname>Nicolae Lerma</surname>
              </persName>
              <email type="md5">a44e0617470bcab42e64003b1825f8ac</email>
              <email type="domain">brgm.fr</email>
              <idno type="idhal" notation="string">alexandre-nicolae-lerma</idno>
              <idno type="idhal" notation="numeric">938080</idno>
              <idno type="halauthorid" notation="string">697336-938080</idno>
              <idno type="ORCID">https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5286-4925</idno>
              <idno type="GOOGLE SCHOLAR">https://scholar.google.fr/citations?user=w1EMJNsAAAAJ</idno>
              <affiliation ref="#struct-18404"/>
            </author>
            <author role="aut">
              <persName>
                <forename type="first">Thomas</forename>
                <surname>Bulteau</surname>
              </persName>
              <email type="md5">e6d3422d3e080b8e3f262556edd80db8</email>
              <email type="domain">brgm.fr</email>
              <idno type="idhal" notation="string">thomas-bulteau</idno>
              <idno type="idhal" notation="numeric">744998</idno>
              <idno type="halauthorid" notation="string">26504-744998</idno>
              <idno type="ORCID">https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7572-1863</idno>
              <affiliation ref="#struct-18404"/>
            </author>
            <author role="aut">
              <persName>
                <forename type="first">Sylvain</forename>
                <surname>Elineau</surname>
              </persName>
              <idno type="halauthorid">797630-0</idno>
              <affiliation ref="#struct-1343"/>
              <affiliation ref="#struct-18404"/>
            </author>
            <author role="aut">
              <persName>
                <forename type="first">François</forename>
                <surname>Paris</surname>
              </persName>
              <email type="md5">9009c8a72da14de70e0f1fa680e8972a</email>
              <email type="domain">brgm.fr</email>
              <idno type="idhal" notation="numeric">944346</idno>
              <idno type="halauthorid" notation="string">375827-944346</idno>
              <affiliation ref="#struct-18404"/>
            </author>
            <author role="aut">
              <persName>
                <forename type="first">Rodrigo</forename>
                <surname>Pedreros</surname>
              </persName>
              <email type="md5">a77215e0a9c2f9843db5390162b14a7c</email>
              <email type="domain">brgm.fr</email>
              <idno type="idhal" notation="numeric">883287</idno>
              <idno type="halauthorid" notation="string">483231-883287</idno>
              <affiliation ref="#struct-18404"/>
            </author>
            <editor role="depositor">
              <persName>
                <forename>Alexandre</forename>
                <surname>Nicolae Lerma</surname>
              </persName>
              <email type="md5">a44e0617470bcab42e64003b1825f8ac</email>
              <email type="domain">brgm.fr</email>
            </editor>
          </titleStmt>
          <editionStmt>
            <edition n="v1" type="current">
              <date type="whenSubmitted">2016-10-25 14:19:16</date>
              <date type="whenWritten">2016-12-05</date>
              <date type="whenModified">2026-02-20 14:52:03</date>
              <date type="whenReleased">2017-01-24 11:49:59</date>
              <date type="whenProduced">2016-12-12</date>
              <date type="whenEndEmbargoed">2016-10-25</date>
              <ref type="file" target="https://brgm.hal.science/hal-01387336v1/document">
                <date notBefore="2016-10-25"/>
              </ref>
              <ref type="file" subtype="author" n="1" target="https://brgm.hal.science/hal-01387336v1/file/Abstract_AGU2016_CRISSIS.pdf" id="file-1387336-1522253">
                <date notBefore="2016-10-25"/>
              </ref>
            </edition>
            <respStmt>
              <resp>contributor</resp>
              <name key="181653">
                <persName>
                  <forename>Alexandre</forename>
                  <surname>Nicolae Lerma</surname>
                </persName>
                <email type="md5">a44e0617470bcab42e64003b1825f8ac</email>
                <email type="domain">brgm.fr</email>
              </name>
            </respStmt>
          </editionStmt>
          <publicationStmt>
            <distributor>CCSD</distributor>
            <idno type="halId">hal-01387336</idno>
            <idno type="halUri">https://brgm.hal.science/hal-01387336</idno>
            <idno type="halBibtex">nicolaelerma:hal-01387336</idno>
            <idno type="halRefHtml">&lt;i&gt;AGU Fall meeting&lt;/i&gt;, Dec 2016, San Fransico, United States. 2016</idno>
            <idno type="halRef">AGU Fall meeting, Dec 2016, San Fransico, United States. 2016</idno>
            <availability status="restricted">
              <licence target="https://about.hal.science/hal-authorisation-v1/">HAL Authorization<ref corresp="#file-1387336-1522253"/></licence>
            </availability>
          </publicationStmt>
          <seriesStmt>
            <idno type="stamp" n="SHS">Sciences de l'Homme et de la Société</idno>
            <idno type="stamp" n="SDE">Sciences De l'Environnement</idno>
            <idno type="stamp" n="UNIV-PARIS1">Université Panthéon-Sorbonne - Paris I</idno>
            <idno type="stamp" n="BRGM">Bureau de Recherches Géologiques et Minières</idno>
            <idno type="stamp" n="CNRS">CNRS - Centre national de la recherche scientifique</idno>
            <idno type="stamp" n="AO-GEOGRAPHIE">Archives ouvertes de la Géographie</idno>
            <idno type="stamp" n="GIP-BE">GIP Bretagne Environnement</idno>
            <idno type="stamp" n="UPEC" corresp="CV_UPEC">Université Paris-Est Créteil Val-de-Marne</idno>
            <idno type="stamp" n="LGP" corresp="UNIV-PARIS1">Laboratoire de géographie physique : environnements quaternaires et actuels</idno>
            <idno type="stamp" n="BRGM-TEST">BRGM-TEST</idno>
          </seriesStmt>
          <notesStmt>
            <note type="audience" n="2">International</note>
            <note type="invited" n="0">No</note>
            <note type="popular" n="0">No</note>
            <note type="peer" n="1">Yes</note>
            <note type="proceedings" n="0">No</note>
          </notesStmt>
          <sourceDesc>
            <biblStruct>
              <analytic>
                <title xml:lang="en">Framing 100-year marine submersion hazard resulting from the propagation of 100-year joint hydrodynamic conditions</title>
                <author role="aut">
                  <persName>
                    <forename type="first">Alexandre</forename>
                    <surname>Nicolae Lerma</surname>
                  </persName>
                  <email type="md5">a44e0617470bcab42e64003b1825f8ac</email>
                  <email type="domain">brgm.fr</email>
                  <idno type="idhal" notation="string">alexandre-nicolae-lerma</idno>
                  <idno type="idhal" notation="numeric">938080</idno>
                  <idno type="halauthorid" notation="string">697336-938080</idno>
                  <idno type="ORCID">https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5286-4925</idno>
                  <idno type="GOOGLE SCHOLAR">https://scholar.google.fr/citations?user=w1EMJNsAAAAJ</idno>
                  <affiliation ref="#struct-18404"/>
                </author>
                <author role="aut">
                  <persName>
                    <forename type="first">Thomas</forename>
                    <surname>Bulteau</surname>
                  </persName>
                  <email type="md5">e6d3422d3e080b8e3f262556edd80db8</email>
                  <email type="domain">brgm.fr</email>
                  <idno type="idhal" notation="string">thomas-bulteau</idno>
                  <idno type="idhal" notation="numeric">744998</idno>
                  <idno type="halauthorid" notation="string">26504-744998</idno>
                  <idno type="ORCID">https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7572-1863</idno>
                  <affiliation ref="#struct-18404"/>
                </author>
                <author role="aut">
                  <persName>
                    <forename type="first">Sylvain</forename>
                    <surname>Elineau</surname>
                  </persName>
                  <idno type="halauthorid">797630-0</idno>
                  <affiliation ref="#struct-1343"/>
                  <affiliation ref="#struct-18404"/>
                </author>
                <author role="aut">
                  <persName>
                    <forename type="first">François</forename>
                    <surname>Paris</surname>
                  </persName>
                  <email type="md5">9009c8a72da14de70e0f1fa680e8972a</email>
                  <email type="domain">brgm.fr</email>
                  <idno type="idhal" notation="numeric">944346</idno>
                  <idno type="halauthorid" notation="string">375827-944346</idno>
                  <affiliation ref="#struct-18404"/>
                </author>
                <author role="aut">
                  <persName>
                    <forename type="first">Rodrigo</forename>
                    <surname>Pedreros</surname>
                  </persName>
                  <email type="md5">a77215e0a9c2f9843db5390162b14a7c</email>
                  <email type="domain">brgm.fr</email>
                  <idno type="idhal" notation="numeric">883287</idno>
                  <idno type="halauthorid" notation="string">483231-883287</idno>
                  <affiliation ref="#struct-18404"/>
                </author>
              </analytic>
              <monogr>
                <meeting>
                  <title>AGU Fall meeting</title>
                  <date type="start">2016-12-12</date>
                  <date type="end">2016-12-16</date>
                  <settlement>San Fransico</settlement>
                  <country key="US">United States</country>
                </meeting>
                <respStmt>
                  <resp>conferenceOrganizer</resp>
                  <name>American Geophysical Union</name>
                </respStmt>
                <imprint>
                  <date type="datePub">2016-12-12</date>
                </imprint>
              </monogr>
            </biblStruct>
          </sourceDesc>
          <profileDesc>
            <langUsage>
              <language ident="en">English</language>
            </langUsage>
            <textClass>
              <keywords scheme="author">
                <term xml:lang="en"> incertain flooded area</term>
                <term xml:lang="en"> Joint probability</term>
                <term xml:lang="en"> overtopping</term>
                <term xml:lang="en">Coastal flooding</term>
              </keywords>
              <classCode scheme="halDomain" n="sdu.stu.oc">Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Oceanography</classCode>
              <classCode scheme="halDomain" n="shs.geo">Humanities and Social Sciences/Geography</classCode>
              <classCode scheme="halDomain" n="sde.ie">Environmental Sciences/Environmental Engineering</classCode>
              <classCode scheme="halDomain" n="sde.mcg">Environmental Sciences/Global Changes</classCode>
              <classCode scheme="halDomain" n="stat.me">Statistics [stat]/Methodology [stat.ME]</classCode>
              <classCode scheme="halTypology" n="POSTER">Poster communications</classCode>
              <classCode scheme="halOldTypology" n="POSTER">Poster communications</classCode>
              <classCode scheme="halTreeTypology" n="POSTER">Poster communications</classCode>
            </textClass>
            <abstract xml:lang="en">
              <p>Marine submersion is an increasing concern for coastal cities as urban development reinforces their vulnerabilities while climate change is likely to foster the frequency and magnitude of submersions. Characterising the coastal flooding hazard is therefore of paramount importance to ensure the security of people living in such places and for coastal planning. A hazard is commonly defined as an adverse phenomenon, often represented by a magnitude of a variable of interest (e.g. flooded area), hereafter called response variable, associated with a probability of exceedance or, alternatively, a return period. Characterising the coastal flooding hazard consists in finding the correspondence between the magnitude and the return period. The difficulty lies in the fact that the assessment is usually performed using physical numerical models taking as inputs scenarios composed by multiple forcing conditions that are most of the time interdependent. Indeed, a time series of the response variable is usually not available so we have to deal instead with time series of forcing variables (e.g. water level, waves). Thus, the problem is twofold: on the one hand, the definition of scenariosis a multivariate matter; on the other hand, it is tricky and approximate to associate the resulting response, being the output of the physical numerical model, to the return period defined for the scenarios. In this study, we illustrate the problem on the district of Leucate, located in the French Mediterranean coast. A multivariate extreme value analysis of waves and water levels is performed offshore using a conditional extreme model, then two different methods are used to define and select 100-year scenarios of forcing variables: one based on joint exceedance probability contours, a method classically used in coastal risks studies, the other based on environmental contours, which arecommonly used in the field of structure design engineering. We show that these two methods enable one to frame the true 100-year response variable. The selected scenarios are propagated to the shorethrough a high resolution flood modelling coupling overflowing and overtopping processes. Results in terms of inundated areas and inland water volumes are finally compared for the two methods, giving upper and lower bounds for the true response variables.</p>
            </abstract>
          </profileDesc>
        </biblFull>
      </listBibl>
    </body>
    <back>
      <listOrg type="structures">
        <org type="institution" xml:id="struct-18404" status="VALID">
          <idno type="IdRef">026362775</idno>
          <idno type="ISNI">0000000121846484</idno>
          <idno type="RNSR">195922846R</idno>
          <idno type="ROR">https://ror.org/05hnb7x64</idno>
          <idno type="Wikidata">Q138691</idno>
          <orgName>Bureau de Recherches Géologiques et Minières</orgName>
          <orgName type="acronym">BRGM</orgName>
          <desc>
            <address>
              <addrLine>Orléans (siège social) ET Directions régionales</addrLine>
              <country key="FR"/>
            </address>
            <ref type="url">http://www.brgm.fr/</ref>
          </desc>
        </org>
        <org type="laboratory" xml:id="struct-1343" status="VALID">
          <idno type="IdRef">034511571</idno>
          <idno type="ISNI">0000000101912341</idno>
          <idno type="RNSR">199812919F</idno>
          <idno type="ROR">https://ror.org/054v0s666</idno>
          <idno type="Wikidata">Q33121454</idno>
          <orgName>Laboratoire de géographie physique : Environnements Quaternaires et Actuels</orgName>
          <orgName type="acronym">LGP</orgName>
          <date type="start">1998-01-01</date>
          <desc>
            <address>
              <addrLine>2 rue Henri Dunant94320 Thiais</addrLine>
              <country key="FR"/>
            </address>
            <ref type="url">https://www.lgp.cnrs.fr/</ref>
          </desc>
          <listRelation>
            <relation name="UMR8591" active="#struct-7550" type="direct"/>
            <relation name="UMR8591" active="#struct-420786" type="direct"/>
            <relation name="UMR8591" active="#struct-441569" type="direct"/>
          </listRelation>
        </org>
        <org type="institution" xml:id="struct-7550" status="VALID">
          <idno type="IdRef">027361802</idno>
          <idno type="ISNI">000000012173743X</idno>
          <idno type="ROR">https://ror.org/002t25c44</idno>
          <orgName>Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne</orgName>
          <orgName type="acronym">UP1</orgName>
          <desc>
            <address>
              <addrLine>12 place du Panthéon, 75231 Paris Cedex 05</addrLine>
              <country key="FR"/>
            </address>
            <ref type="url">https://www.pantheonsorbonne.fr</ref>
          </desc>
        </org>
        <org type="institution" xml:id="struct-420786" status="VALID">
          <idno type="IdRef">028021037</idno>
          <idno type="ISNI">0000000121497878</idno>
          <idno type="ROR">https://ror.org/05ggc9x40</idno>
          <orgName>Université Paris-Est Créteil Val-de-Marne - Paris 12</orgName>
          <orgName type="acronym">UPEC UP12</orgName>
          <date type="start">1970-01-01</date>
          <desc>
            <address>
              <addrLine>61 avenue du Général de Gaulle - 94010 Créteil cedex</addrLine>
              <country key="FR"/>
            </address>
            <ref type="url">http://www.u-pec.fr/</ref>
          </desc>
        </org>
        <org type="regroupinstitution" xml:id="struct-441569" status="VALID">
          <idno type="IdRef">02636817X</idno>
          <idno type="ISNI">0000000122597504</idno>
          <idno type="ROR">https://ror.org/02feahw73</idno>
          <orgName>Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique</orgName>
          <orgName type="acronym">CNRS</orgName>
          <date type="start">1939-10-19</date>
          <desc>
            <address>
              <country key="FR"/>
            </address>
            <ref type="url">https://www.cnrs.fr/</ref>
          </desc>
        </org>
      </listOrg>
    </back>
  </text>
</TEI>