Assessing the effect of uncertainties in pollutant wash-off dynamics in stormwater source-control systems modeling: consequences of the use an inappropriate error model
Résumé
This study investigates the effect of uncertainties associated with pollutant wash-off dynamics in
the context of stormwater management practices modelling. A formal Bayesian approach is adopted
for the calibration and the uncertainty analysis of a commonly used wash-off model, under (1) the
unverified assumption of homoscedastic, independent and normally distributed residuals and (2)
using a more correct heteroscedastic and autoregressive error model. The results obtained for each
of these approaches are compared and the uncertainty associated with water quality modelling is
later propagated through a conceptual Best Management Practices (BMP) model, for various
stormwater management scenarios, so as to assess the effect of this uncertainty for BMP modelling
and clarify the benefits of a robust description of error structure. This study indicates that the
violation of the statistical asumptions about the residuals may result in unreliable estimation of
model parameters and total predictive uncertainty. The effect of the uncertainty in the intra-event
variability of concentations in runoff is however found to have only a limited effect on the outputs
of the BMP model, regadless of the error model adopted for calibration.
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