Beautiful Trees on Unstable Ground: Notes on the Data Problem in Lexicostatistics
Résumé
While lexicostatistics and glottochronology had been suffering a lack of prestige for a
long time, the integration of stochastic methods taken from genetics has initiated an
unexpected revival of these scorned disciplines. The proponents of these "new quantitative
methods" in historical linguistics claim that the procedures are relatively robust regarding
errors in the data (wrong cognate judgments, undetected borrowings, or wrong
translations). In order to check this claim, we have investigated the differences and errors in
two large lexicostatistical datasets and tested their influence on the topologies of computed
family trees. Our results show clearly that the shortcomings of lexicostatistics and
glottochronology have not been overcome by these new computation methods: the main
problems of lexicostatistics and glottochronology, the translation of basic concepts into
individual languages, and the execution of cognate judgments are still so grave that no
reliable results can be drawn from these methods.
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