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              <p>We study parameter estimation for one-dimensional energy balance models with memory (EBMMs) given localized and noisy temperature measurements. Our results apply to a wide range of nonlinear, parabolic partial differential equations (PDEs) with integral memory terms. First, we show that a space-dependent parameter can be determined uniquely everywhere in the PDE's domain of definition D, using only temperature information in a small subdomain E ⊂ D. This result is valid only when the data correspond to exact measurements of the temperature. We propose a method for estimating a model parameter of the EBMM using more realistic , error-contaminated temperature data derived, for example, from ice cores or marine-sediment cores. Our approach is based on a so-called mechanistic-statistical model, which combines a deterministic EBMM with a statistical model of the observation process. Estimating a parameter in this setting is especially challenging because the observation process induces a strong loss of information. Aside from the noise contained in past temperature measurements, an additional error is induced by the age-dating method, whose accuracy tends to decrease with a sample's remoteness in time. Using a Bayesian approach , we show that obtaining an accurate parameter estimate is still possible in certain cases.</p>
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