Advanced Monte Carlo Method for model uncertainty propagation in risk assessment
Résumé
In this paper, an Advanced Monte Carlo Method based on interval analysis approachand Monte Carlo simulation is proposed in order to propagate uncertainties in an atmosphericdispersion model. The purpose is to compute with accuracy the geographical region in whichthe concentration of the considered toxic gas is less than the threshold of irreversible eects.The problem of uncertainty propagation is tackled in order to assess the risk at the eventof an accident, which may have an important impact on population. The estimation of gasconcentration is based on an eect model associated with the studied dangerous phenomenonwhere some model inputs are known with imprecision. The principle of the proposed methodis to generate random interval supports of model inputs instead of random values in order toincrease accuracy and reduce the sampling size. The Advanced Monte Carlo Method is appliedand compared for estimating uncertainty on the computed region with the classical Monte Carlosimulation.