On the macro-economic impacts of climate change under informational failures
Résumé
Although the sources, extent and physical impacts of the future climate change are highly uncertain,
available dynamic economic assessments implicitly assume that economic agents perfectly know
them. Perfect foresight, rational expectations or active learning are standard assumptions underlying
simulated results. To the contrary, this paper builds on the assumption that economic agents may
suffer for a while from limited knowledge about the average and variability of physical impacts of
climate change. Using a world dynamic and stochastic general equilibrium model, our simulation
results show that identifying the average physical impact is much more crucial than its variability. This
finding is robust to the level of risk aversion of economic agents. The rate of pure time preference of
economic agents more significantly affects the economic impacts. We also find that the value of
information may be negative in the short to medium run.
Domaines
Sciences du Vivant [q-bio]Origine | Fichiers éditeurs autorisés sur une archive ouverte |
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