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            <title xml:lang="en">Predicting the Deleterious Effects of Mutation Load in Fragmented Populations</title>
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            <idno type="halRefHtml">&lt;i&gt;Conservation Biology&lt;/i&gt;, 2009, 23 (1), pp.207-218. &lt;a target="_blank" href="https://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1523-1739.2008.01052.x"&gt;&amp;#x27E8;10.1111/j.1523-1739.2008.01052.x&amp;#x27E9;&lt;/a&gt;</idno>
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                <term xml:lang="en">extinction time</term>
                <term xml:lang="en">genetic structure</term>
                <term xml:lang="en">habitat fragmentation</term>
                <term xml:lang="en">metapopulation</term>
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              <p>Human-induced habitat fragmentation constitutes a major threat to biodiversity. Both genetic anddemographic factors combine to drive small and isolated populations into extinction vortices. Nevertheless, thedeleterious effects of inbreeding and drift load may depend on population structure, migration patterns, andmating systems and are difficult to predict in the absence of crossing experiments. We performed stochasticindividual-based simulations aimed at predicting the effects of deleterious mutations on population fitness(offspring viability and median time to extinction) under a variety of settings (landscape configurations,migration models, and mating systems) on the basis of easy-to-collect demographic and genetic information.Pooling all simulations, a large part (70%) of variance in offspring viability was explained by a combinationof genetic structure (FST) and within-deme heterozygosity (HS). A similar part of variance in median time toextinction was explained by a combination of local population size (N) and heterozygosity (HS). In both casesthe predictive power increased above 80% when information on mating systems was available. These resultsprovide robust predictive models to evaluate the viability prospects of fragmented populations.</p>
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