Monitoring Event Flows and Modelling Scenarios for Crisis Prediction, Application to Ethnic Conflicts Forecasting - Archive ouverte HAL Accéder directement au contenu
Article Dans Une Revue International Journal of Uncertainty, Fuzziness and Knowledge-Based Systems Année : 2007

Monitoring Event Flows and Modelling Scenarios for Crisis Prediction, Application to Ethnic Conflicts Forecasting

Résumé

We have developed an early warning prototype, based on a knowledge management approach, so as to carry out the online detection of crises. Experts, with the help of automatic tools, design an ontology describing domain-specific crisis eruption processes. Then a recognition engine performs model-based inference, in order to identify among the events feeding the system, typical sequences that might trigger a crisis. Crises are described in the ontology through the template technique which provides also mechanisms to assess the similarity between stored scenarios and event flows related to the monitored process. This technique takes into account imperfect knowledge and uncertainties: for instance, imprecise temporal constraints between events are represented by fuzzy sets.
Fichier non déposé

Dates et versions

hal-01172239 , version 1 (07-07-2015)

Identifiants

Citer

Thomas Delavallade, Laure Mouillet, Bernadette Bouchon-Meunier, Emmanuel Collain. Monitoring Event Flows and Modelling Scenarios for Crisis Prediction, Application to Ethnic Conflicts Forecasting. International Journal of Uncertainty, Fuzziness and Knowledge-Based Systems, 2007, 15 (S1), pp.83-110. ⟨10.1142/S0218488507004479⟩. ⟨hal-01172239⟩
90 Consultations
0 Téléchargements

Altmetric

Partager

Gmail Facebook X LinkedIn More