Mortality: a statistical approach to detect model misspecification
Résumé
The Solvency 2 advent and the best-estimate methodology in future cash-flows valuation lead insurers to focus particularly on their assumptions. In mortality, hypothesis are critical as insurers use best-estimate laws instead of standard mortality tables. Backtesting methods, i.e. ex-post modelling validation processes , are encouraged by regulators and rise an increasing interest among practitioners and academics. In this paper, we propose a statistical approach (both parametric and non-parametric models compliant) for mortality laws backtesting under model risk. Afterwards, a specification risk is introduced assuming that the mortality law is subject to random variations. Finally, the suitability of the proposed method will be assessed within this framework.
Domaines
Gestion des risques [q-fin.RM]Origine | Fichiers produits par l'(les) auteur(s) |
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