How do various maize crop models vary in their responses to climate change factors?
Simona Bassu
(1)
,
Nadine Brisson
(1)
,
Jean Louis Durand
(2)
,
Kenneth Boote
(3)
,
Jon Lizaso
(4)
,
James W. Jones
(5)
,
Cynthia Rosenzweig
(6)
,
Alex C. Ruarne
(6)
,
Myriam Adam
(7)
,
Christian Baron
(8)
,
Bruno Basso
(9, 10)
,
Christian Biernath
,
Hendrik Boogaard
(11)
,
Sjaak Conijn
(12)
,
Marc Corbeels
(13)
,
Delphine Deryng
(14, 15)
,
Giacomo de Sanctis
(16)
,
Sebastian Gayler
(17)
,
Patricio Grassini
(18)
,
Jerry Hatfield
,
Steven Hoek
(11)
,
Cesar Izaurralde
,
Raymond Jongschaap
(12)
,
Amen R. Kamanian
(19)
,
Christian Kersebaum
(20)
,
Soo-Hyung Kim
(21)
,
Naresh S. Kumar
(22)
,
David Makowski
(1)
,
Christoph Müller
,
Claas Nendel
(23)
,
Eckart Priesack
,
Maria Virginia Pravia
(19)
,
Frederico Sau
(4)
,
Iurii Shcherbak
(9, 10)
,
Fulu Tao
(24)
,
Edmar Teixeira
,
Dennis Timlin
,
Katharina Waha
(22)
1
Agronomie
2 P3F - Unité de Recherche Pluridisciplinaire Prairies et Plantes Fourragères
3 Department of agronomy
4 Department Produccion vegetal, Fitotecnia
5 UF|ABE - Department of Agricultural and Biological Engineering [Gainesville]
6 GISS Climate impacts group
7 UMR AGAP - Amélioration génétique et adaptation des plantes méditerranéennes et tropicales
8 UMR TETIS - Territoires, Environnement, Télédétection et Information Spatiale
9 Department of geological sciences
10 Department crop systems, forestry and environmental sciences
11 Centre for Geo-Information
12 WUR-Plant research international
13 UPR AIDA - Agroécologie et Intensification Durables des cultures annuelles
14 Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research
15 School of Environmental Sciences [Norwich]
16 AGROCLIM - Agroclim
17 WESS - Water and earth system science [Tübingen]
18 Department of agronomy and horticulture
19 Department of plant science
20 Institute of Lanscape Systems Analysis
21 School of environmental and forest sciences
22 CESCRA - Centre for Environment Science and Climate Resilient Agriculture
23 Institute of landscape systems analysis
24 IGSNRR - Institute of geographical sciences and natural resources research [CAS]
2 P3F - Unité de Recherche Pluridisciplinaire Prairies et Plantes Fourragères
3 Department of agronomy
4 Department Produccion vegetal, Fitotecnia
5 UF|ABE - Department of Agricultural and Biological Engineering [Gainesville]
6 GISS Climate impacts group
7 UMR AGAP - Amélioration génétique et adaptation des plantes méditerranéennes et tropicales
8 UMR TETIS - Territoires, Environnement, Télédétection et Information Spatiale
9 Department of geological sciences
10 Department crop systems, forestry and environmental sciences
11 Centre for Geo-Information
12 WUR-Plant research international
13 UPR AIDA - Agroécologie et Intensification Durables des cultures annuelles
14 Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research
15 School of Environmental Sciences [Norwich]
16 AGROCLIM - Agroclim
17 WESS - Water and earth system science [Tübingen]
18 Department of agronomy and horticulture
19 Department of plant science
20 Institute of Lanscape Systems Analysis
21 School of environmental and forest sciences
22 CESCRA - Centre for Environment Science and Climate Resilient Agriculture
23 Institute of landscape systems analysis
24 IGSNRR - Institute of geographical sciences and natural resources research [CAS]
Jean Louis Durand
- Fonction : Auteur
- PersonId : 735133
- IdHAL : jean-louis-durand
- ORCID : 0000-0003-2751-168X
James W. Jones
- Fonction : Auteur
- PersonId : 958970
Christian Biernath
- Fonction : Auteur
Marc Corbeels
- Fonction : Auteur
- PersonId : 766605
- ORCID : 0000-0002-8084-9287
Delphine Deryng
- Fonction : Auteur
- PersonId : 772077
- ORCID : 0000-0001-6214-7241
Jerry Hatfield
- Fonction : Auteur
Cesar Izaurralde
- Fonction : Auteur
David Makowski
- Fonction : Auteur
- PersonId : 743045
- IdHAL : david-makowski
- ORCID : 0000-0001-6385-3703
- IdRef : 155741101
Christoph Müller
- Fonction : Auteur
- PersonId : 772079
- ORCID : 0000-0003-2234-6902
Claas Nendel
- Fonction : Auteur
- PersonId : 772081
- ORCID : 0000-0001-7608-9097
Eckart Priesack
- Fonction : Auteur
Edmar Teixeira
- Fonction : Auteur
Dennis Timlin
- Fonction : Auteur
Résumé
Potential consequences of climate change on crop production can be studied using mechanistic crop simulation models. While a broad variety of maize simulation models exist, it is not known whether different models diverge on grain yield responses to changes in climatic factors, or whether they agree in their general trends related to phenology, growth, and yield. With the goal of analyzing the sensitivity of simulated yields to changes in temperature and atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations [CO2], we present the largest maize crop model intercomparison to date, including 23 different models. These models were evaluated for four locations representing a wide range of maize production conditions in the world: Lusignan (France), Ames (USA), Rio Verde (Brazil) and Morogoro (Tanzania). While individual models differed considerably in absolute yield simulation at the four sites, an ensemble of a minimum number of models was able to simulate absolute yields accurately at the four sites even with low data for calibration, thus suggesting that using an ensemble of models has merit. Temperature increase had strong negative influence on modeled yield response of roughly -0.5 Mg ha(-1) per degrees C. Doubling [CO2] from 360 to 720 mu mol mol(-1) increased grain yield by 7.5% on average across models and the sites. That would therefore make temperature the main factor altering maize yields at the end of this century. Furthermore, there was a large uncertainty in the yield response to [CO2] among models. Model responses to temperature and [CO2] did not differ whether models were simulated with low calibration information or, simulated with high level of calibration information.