Inferring the origin of an epidemic with a dynamic message-passing algorithm - Archive ouverte HAL
Article Dans Une Revue Physical Review E : Statistical, Nonlinear, and Soft Matter Physics Année : 2014

Inferring the origin of an epidemic with a dynamic message-passing algorithm

Résumé

We study the problem of estimating the origin of an epidemic outbreak -- given a contact network and a snapshot of epidemic spread at a certain time, determine the infection source. Finding the source is important in different contexts of computer or social networks. We assume that the epidemic spread follows the most commonly used susceptible-infected-recovered model. We introduce an inference algorithm based on dynamic message-passing equations, and we show that it leads to significant improvement of performance compared to existing approaches. Importantly, this algorithm remains efficient in the case where one knows the state of only a fraction of nodes.

Dates et versions

hal-01052984 , version 1 (29-07-2014)

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Andrey Y. Lokhov, Marc Mézard, Hiroki Ohta, Lenka Zdeborová. Inferring the origin of an epidemic with a dynamic message-passing algorithm. Physical Review E : Statistical, Nonlinear, and Soft Matter Physics, 2014, 90, pp.012801. ⟨10.1103/PhysRevE.90.012801⟩. ⟨hal-01052984⟩
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