This paper studies the prediction accuracy of models for ground-borne vibrations in buildings based on a three-dimensional coupled FE–BE formulation in the frequency range relevant for traffic induced vibrations. In structural dynamics, the prediction accuracy at relatively high frequencies is known to be problematic since the sensitivity of the predicted response to modelling errors and parameter uncertainties increases with the frequency. To estimate the prediction accuracy, this paper incorporates the parameter uncertainties and the modelling errors into the analysis using the non-parametric probabilistic approach, introduced by Soize. The methodology is applied to a case history. The results of a prediction model for the transmission of vibrations from a shallow cut-and-cover tunnel to a six storey reinforced concrete frame structure in Paris are considered and compared with in situ measurements. The results demonstrate that a single dispersion parameter allows fitting the data. The sensitivity of the response to uncertainties is shown to increase as vibrations propagate inside the building.