21st century climate change threatens mountain flora unequally across Europe - Archive ouverte HAL Accéder directement au contenu
Article Dans Une Revue Global Change Biology Année : 2011

21st century climate change threatens mountain flora unequally across Europe

Robin R. Engler
  • Fonction : Auteur
Christophe C. Randin
  • Fonction : Auteur
Wilfried W. Thuiller
Stefan S. Dullinger
  • Fonction : Auteur
Niklaus E. N. E. Zimmermann
  • Fonction : Auteur
Miguel M. Araujo
  • Fonction : Auteur
Peter B. P. B. Pearman
  • Fonction : Auteur
Gwenaelle G. Le Lay
  • Fonction : Auteur
Cécile H. Albert
John-Arvid J.-A. Grytnes
  • Fonction : Auteur
Einar E. Heegaard
  • Fonction : Auteur
Fride F. Hoistad
  • Fonction : Auteur
Signe S. Normand
  • Fonction : Auteur
Mihai M. Puscas
  • Fonction : Auteur
Angela A. Stanisci
  • Fonction : Auteur
Mandar M. Trivedi
  • Fonction : Auteur
Pascal P. Vittoz
  • Fonction : Auteur
Antoine A. Guisan
  • Fonction : Auteur

Résumé

Continental-scale assessments of 21st century global impacts of climate change on biodiversity have forecasted range contractions for many species. These coarse resolution studies are, however, of limited relevance for projecting risks to biodiversity in mountain systems, where pronounced microclimatic variation could allow species to persist locally, and are ill-suited for assessment of species-specific threat in particular regions. Here, we assess the impacts of climate change on 2632 plant species across all major European mountain ranges, using high-resolution (ca. 100 m) species samples and data expressing four future climate scenarios. Projected habitat loss is greater for species distributed at higher elevations; depending on the climate scenario, we find 36-55% of alpine species, 31-51% of subalpine species and 19-46% of montane species lose more than 80% of their suitable habitat by 2070-2100. While our high-resolution analyses consistently indicate marked levels of threat to cold-adapted mountain florae across Europe, they also reveal unequal distribution of this threat across the various mountain ranges. Impacts on florae from regions projected to undergo increased warming accompanied by decreased precipitation, such as the Pyrenees and the Eastern Austrian Alps, will likely be greater than on florae in regions where the increase in temperature is less pronounced and rainfall increases concomitantly, such as in the Norwegian Scandes and the Scottish Highlands. This suggests that change in precipitation, not only warming, plays an important role in determining the potential impacts of climate change on vegetation.

Dates et versions

hal-01000485 , version 1 (04-06-2014)

Identifiants

Citer

Robin R. Engler, Christophe C. Randin, Wilfried W. Thuiller, Stefan S. Dullinger, Niklaus E. N. E. Zimmermann, et al.. 21st century climate change threatens mountain flora unequally across Europe. Global Change Biology, 2011, 17 (7), pp.2330-2341. ⟨10.1111/j.1365-2486.2010.02393.x⟩. ⟨hal-01000485⟩
239 Consultations
0 Téléchargements

Altmetric

Partager

Gmail Facebook X LinkedIn More