Improving the numerical prediction of a cyclone in the Mediterranean by local potential vorticity modifications - Archive ouverte HAL
Article Dans Une Revue Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society Année : 2009

Improving the numerical prediction of a cyclone in the Mediterranean by local potential vorticity modifications

Résumé

This study explores the benefit that can be drawn from incorporating local potential vorticity (PV) modifications into a numerical forecast. The case under study is the severe cyclogenesis that occurred in the Western Mediterranean from 9 to 12 November 2001. This case was shown to be extremely sensitive to the upper-level flow, which governed to a great extent the deepening of the depression and the location and intensity of its associated precipitation. Corrections of PV were guided by METEOSAT-7 water vapour observations and restricted to the upper troposphere, mainly altering the topography of the dynamical tropopause. Using both the French operational global model ARPEGE and the non-hydrostatic mesoscale model Meso-NH, it is shown that carefully designed PV corrections lead to a substantial improvement in the simulation of the storm, both in terms of surface pressure, cloud cover and precipitation forecasts. Furthermore, the impact of the modifications is shown to be a maximum when they are introduced at the time corresponding to the incipient stage of cyclogenesis.
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hal-00991973 , version 1 (10-11-2021)

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Sébastien Argence, Dominique Lambert, Evelyne Richard, Jean-Pierre Chaboureau, Jean-Philippe Arbogast, et al.. Improving the numerical prediction of a cyclone in the Mediterranean by local potential vorticity modifications. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 2009, 135, pp.865-879. ⟨10.1002/qj.422⟩. ⟨hal-00991973⟩
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