Do Google Trend data contain more predictability than price returns? - Archive ouverte HAL
Article Dans Une Revue Journal of Investment Strategies Année : 2015

Do Google Trend data contain more predictability than price returns?

Ahmed Bel Hadj Ayed
  • Fonction : Auteur

Résumé

Using non-linear machine learning methods and a proper backtest procedure, we critically examine the claim that Google Trends can predict future price returns. We first review the many potential biases that may influence backtests with this kind of data positively, the choice of keywords being by far the greatest culprit. We then argue that the real question is whether such data contain more predictability than price returns themselves: our backtest yields a performance of about 17bps per week which only weakly depends on the kind of data on which predictors are based, i.e. either past price returns or Google Trends data, or both.
Fichier principal
Vignette du fichier
challet_do_google_trend.pdf (488.93 Ko) Télécharger le fichier
Origine Fichiers produits par l'(les) auteur(s)
Loading...

Dates et versions

hal-00960875 , version 1 (21-04-2020)

Identifiants

Citer

Damien Challet, Ahmed Bel Hadj Ayed. Do Google Trend data contain more predictability than price returns?. Journal of Investment Strategies, 2015, ⟨10.21314/JOIS.2015.064⟩. ⟨hal-00960875⟩
1800 Consultations
567 Téléchargements

Altmetric

Partager

More