Killeen's Probability of Replication and Predictive Probabilities: How to Compute, Use, and Interpret Them - Archive ouverte HAL Accéder directement au contenu
Article Dans Une Revue Psychological Methods Année : 2010

Killeen's Probability of Replication and Predictive Probabilities: How to Compute, Use, and Interpret Them

Résumé

P. R. Killeen's (2005a) [Killeen, P. R. - An alternative to null-hypothesis significance tests, Psychological Science, 2005, 16, 345–353] probability of replication (prep) of an experimental result is the fiducial Bayesian predictive probability of finding a same-sign effect in a replication of an experiment. prep is now routinely reported in Psychological Science and has also begun to appear in other journals. However, there is little concrete, practical guidance for use of prep and the procedure has not received the scrutiny that it deserves. Furthermore, only a solution that assumes a known variance has been implemented. A practical problem with prep is identified: in many articles prep appears to be incorrectly computed, due to the confusion between 1-tailed and 2-tailed p-values. Experimental findings reveal the risk of misinterpreting prep as the predictive probability of finding a same-sign and significant effect in a replication (psrep). Conceptual and practical guidelines are given to avoid these pitfalls. They include the extension to the case of unknown variance. Moreover, other uses of fiducial Bayesian predictive probabilities, for analyzing, designing ("how many subjects?") and monitoring ("when to stop?") experiments, are presented. Concluding remarks emphasize the role of predictive procedures in statistical methodology.
Fichier principal
Vignette du fichier
Lecoutre_et_al_-_Killeen_s_Probability_of_Replication.pdf (289.8 Ko) Télécharger le fichier
Origine : Fichiers produits par l'(les) auteur(s)
Loading...

Dates et versions

hal-00491698 , version 1 (14-06-2010)

Identifiants

Citer

Bruno Lecoutre, Marie-Paule Lecoutre, Jacques Poitevineau. Killeen's Probability of Replication and Predictive Probabilities: How to Compute, Use, and Interpret Them. Psychological Methods, 2010, 15 (2), pp.158-171. ⟨10.1037/a0015915⟩. ⟨hal-00491698⟩
161 Consultations
530 Téléchargements

Altmetric

Partager

Gmail Facebook X LinkedIn More