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Communication Dans Un Congrès Année : 2010

Characterization and propagation of uncertainties in complex socio-technical system risk analyses

Carole Duval
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Résumé

Risk analyses are often specific studies in various sectors (technical, human, organizational, environmental). However, facing the increasingly complex character of current industrial systems, it is important to deal with all sectors in a same risk model. This has led to develop a model that enables so-called "integrated" analyses to be performed. The studies carried out have demonstrated the difficulty in configuring these components accurately and/or completely. This observation leads us to ask questions related on how taking into account these uncertainties, modeling them and propagating them in this integrated model. The purpose of this paper is to apply elements of evidence theory to an industrial case in order to draw perspectives and to identify axes of future research.

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Dates et versions

hal-00462252 , version 1 (09-03-2010)
hal-00462252 , version 2 (13-04-2011)

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  • HAL Id : hal-00462252 , version 2

Citer

Geoffrey Fallet, Carole Duval, Philippe Weber, Christophe Simon. Characterization and propagation of uncertainties in complex socio-technical system risk analyses. 1st international Workshop on the Theory of Belief Functions, Apr 2010, Brest, France. pp.CDROM. ⟨hal-00462252v2⟩
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