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            <title xml:lang="fr">Croissance et répartition en France (1982-2006) : une approche par les VAR cointégrés</title>
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                <title xml:lang="fr">Croissance et répartition en France (1982-2006) : une approche par les VAR cointégrés</title>
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                <term xml:lang="en">Income distribution</term>
                <term xml:lang="en">Wage moderation</term>
                <term xml:lang="en">Economic growth</term>
                <term xml:lang="fr">Répartition des revenus</term>
                <term xml:lang="fr">Modération salariale</term>
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              <p>DISTRIBUTION AND GROWTH IN FRANCE (1982-2006): A COINTEGRATED VAR APPROACH. We propose a simple Post Keynesian model so as to test whether French economy is profit or wage-led i.e. whether a profit share increase has a positive or negative impact on economic growth. In that perspective, we estimate the three behaviour equations of our model (consumption, investment and net exports) by using a VECM. Then we solve our model by using the estimated coefficients and can then conclude on the nature of the French economic regime. Our main conclusion is that French economy would be weakly profit-led: a one point increase of profit share increases economic growth of only 0.1 %. This result might be explained by both weak multiplier (in an open economy) and accelerator effects in the estimated model.</p>
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              <p>A l'aide d'un modèle postkeynésien, nous cherchons à déterminer si l'économie française est profit-led ou wage-led, c'est-à-dire si une hausse de la part des profits a un effet positif ou négatif sur la croissance économique. Nous évaluons les trois équations de comportement de notre modèle (consommation, investissement et exportations nettes) à l'aide d'un VECM, puis nous résolvons notre modèle en utilisant les coefficients estimés. Notre principale conclusion est que l'économie française serait faiblement profit-led : une hausse d'un point de la part des profits n'améliore la croissance que de 0.1 %. Ce résultat s'expliquerait par le fait que les effets multiplicateur (en économie ouverte) et accélérateur du modèle sont très faibles.</p>
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