Modelling expected physical impacts and human casualties from explosive volcanic eruptions - Archive ouverte HAL Accéder directement au contenu
Article Dans Une Revue Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences Année : 2005

Modelling expected physical impacts and human casualties from explosive volcanic eruptions

Résumé

A multi-hazard, multi-vulnerability impact model has been developed for application to European volcanoes that could significantly damage human settlements. This impact model is based on volcanological analyses of the potential hazards and hazard intensities coupled with engineering analyses of the vulnerability to these hazards of residential buildings in four European locations threatened by explosive volcanic eruptions. For a given case study site, inputs to the model are population data, building characteristics, volcano scenarios as a series of hazard intensities, and scenarios such as the time of eruption or the percentage of the population which has been evacuated. Outputs are the rates of fatalities, seriously injured casualties, and destroyed buildings for a given scenario. These results are displayed in a GIS, thereby presenting risk maps which are easy to use for presenting to public officials, the media, and the public. Technical limitations of the model are discussed and future planned developments are considered. This work contributes to the EU-funded project EXPLORIS (Explosive Eruption Risk and Decision Support for EU Populations Threatened by Volcanoes, EVR1-2001-00047).

Fichier principal
Vignette du fichier
nhess-5-1003-2005.pdf (1.96 Mo) Télécharger le fichier
Origine : Accord explicite pour ce dépôt
Loading...

Dates et versions

hal-00330913 , version 1 (18-06-2008)

Licence

Paternité

Identifiants

Citer

R. J. S. Spence, I. Kelman, E. Calogero, G. Toyos, P. J. Baxter, et al.. Modelling expected physical impacts and human casualties from explosive volcanic eruptions. Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, 2005, 5 (6), pp.1003-1015. ⟨10.5194/nhess-5-1003-2005⟩. ⟨hal-00330913⟩
336 Consultations
357 Téléchargements

Altmetric

Partager

Gmail Facebook X LinkedIn More