<?xml version="1.0" encoding="utf-8"?>
<TEI xmlns="http://www.tei-c.org/ns/1.0" xmlns:xsi="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema-instance" xmlns:hal="http://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/" xmlns:gml="http://www.opengis.net/gml/3.3/" xmlns:gmlce="http://www.opengis.net/gml/3.3/ce" version="1.1" xsi:schemaLocation="http://www.tei-c.org/ns/1.0 http://api.archives-ouvertes.fr/documents/aofr-sword.xsd">
  <teiHeader>
    <fileDesc>
      <titleStmt>
        <title>HAL TEI export of hal-00302051</title>
      </titleStmt>
      <publicationStmt>
        <distributor>CCSD</distributor>
        <availability status="restricted">
          <licence target="https://creativecommons.org/publicdomain/zero/1.0/">CC0 1.0 - Universal</licence>
        </availability>
        <date when="2026-04-28T10:20:48+02:00"/>
      </publicationStmt>
      <sourceDesc>
        <p part="N">HAL API Platform</p>
      </sourceDesc>
    </fileDesc>
  </teiHeader>
  <text>
    <body>
      <listBibl>
        <biblFull>
          <titleStmt>
            <title xml:lang="en">Performance of the ARPA-SMR limited-area ensemble prediction system: two flood cases</title>
            <author role="aut">
              <persName>
                <forename type="first">A.</forename>
                <surname>Montani</surname>
              </persName>
              <idno type="halauthorid">326670-0</idno>
              <affiliation ref="#struct-62856"/>
            </author>
            <author role="aut">
              <persName>
                <forename type="first">C.</forename>
                <surname>Marsigli</surname>
              </persName>
              <idno type="halauthorid">326667-0</idno>
              <affiliation ref="#struct-30978"/>
            </author>
            <author role="aut">
              <persName>
                <forename type="first">F.</forename>
                <surname>Nerozzi</surname>
              </persName>
              <idno type="halauthorid">326668-0</idno>
              <affiliation ref="#struct-62856"/>
            </author>
            <author role="aut">
              <persName>
                <forename type="first">T.</forename>
                <surname>Paccagnella</surname>
              </persName>
              <idno type="halauthorid">326669-0</idno>
              <affiliation ref="#struct-62856"/>
            </author>
            <author role="aut">
              <persName>
                <forename type="first">R.</forename>
                <surname>Buizza</surname>
              </persName>
              <idno type="halauthorid">329454-0</idno>
              <affiliation ref="#struct-44502"/>
            </author>
            <editor role="depositor">
              <persName>
                <forename>Publication</forename>
                <surname>EGU</surname>
              </persName>
              <email type="md5">84306a661d75fec8a68289832f1c43e2</email>
              <email type="domain">ccsd.cnrs.fr</email>
            </editor>
          </titleStmt>
          <editionStmt>
            <edition n="v1" type="current">
              <date type="whenSubmitted">2008-06-18 08:00:00</date>
              <date type="whenWritten">2001</date>
              <date type="whenModified">2026-03-24 15:32:03</date>
              <date type="whenReleased">2008-06-18 08:00:00</date>
              <date type="whenProduced">2001</date>
              <date type="whenEndEmbargoed">2001-01-01</date>
              <ref type="file" target="https://hal.science/hal-00302051v1/document">
                <date notBefore="2001-01-01"/>
              </ref>
              <ref type="file" subtype="publisherAgreement" n="1" target="https://hal.science/hal-00302051v1/file/npg-8-387-2001.pdf" id="file-302051-16018">
                <date notBefore="2001-01-01"/>
              </ref>
            </edition>
            <respStmt>
              <resp>contributor</resp>
              <name key="130100">
                <persName>
                  <forename>Publication</forename>
                  <surname>EGU</surname>
                </persName>
                <email type="md5">84306a661d75fec8a68289832f1c43e2</email>
                <email type="domain">ccsd.cnrs.fr</email>
              </name>
            </respStmt>
          </editionStmt>
          <publicationStmt>
            <distributor>CCSD</distributor>
            <idno type="halId">hal-00302051</idno>
            <idno type="halUri">https://hal.science/hal-00302051</idno>
            <idno type="halBibtex">montani:hal-00302051</idno>
            <idno type="halRefHtml">&lt;i&gt;Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics&lt;/i&gt;, 2001, 8 (6), pp.387-399</idno>
            <idno type="halRef">Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics, 2001, 8 (6), pp.387-399</idno>
            <availability status="restricted">
              <licence target="https://about.hal.science/hal-authorisation-v1/">HAL Authorization<ref corresp="#file-302051-16018"/></licence>
            </availability>
          </publicationStmt>
          <seriesStmt>
            <idno type="stamp" n="INSU">INSU - Institut National des Sciences de l'Univers</idno>
            <idno type="stamp" n="EGU">European Geosciences Union</idno>
            <idno type="stamp" n="EGU-HESSD" corresp="EGU">Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions</idno>
          </seriesStmt>
          <notesStmt>
            <note type="audience" n="2">International</note>
            <note type="popular" n="0">No</note>
            <note type="peer" n="1">Yes</note>
          </notesStmt>
          <sourceDesc>
            <biblStruct>
              <analytic>
                <title xml:lang="en">Performance of the ARPA-SMR limited-area ensemble prediction system: two flood cases</title>
                <author role="aut">
                  <persName>
                    <forename type="first">A.</forename>
                    <surname>Montani</surname>
                  </persName>
                  <idno type="halauthorid">326670-0</idno>
                  <affiliation ref="#struct-62856"/>
                </author>
                <author role="aut">
                  <persName>
                    <forename type="first">C.</forename>
                    <surname>Marsigli</surname>
                  </persName>
                  <idno type="halauthorid">326667-0</idno>
                  <affiliation ref="#struct-30978"/>
                </author>
                <author role="aut">
                  <persName>
                    <forename type="first">F.</forename>
                    <surname>Nerozzi</surname>
                  </persName>
                  <idno type="halauthorid">326668-0</idno>
                  <affiliation ref="#struct-62856"/>
                </author>
                <author role="aut">
                  <persName>
                    <forename type="first">T.</forename>
                    <surname>Paccagnella</surname>
                  </persName>
                  <idno type="halauthorid">326669-0</idno>
                  <affiliation ref="#struct-62856"/>
                </author>
                <author role="aut">
                  <persName>
                    <forename type="first">R.</forename>
                    <surname>Buizza</surname>
                  </persName>
                  <idno type="halauthorid">329454-0</idno>
                  <affiliation ref="#struct-44502"/>
                </author>
              </analytic>
              <monogr>
                <idno type="halJournalId" status="VALID">1825</idno>
                <idno type="issn">1023-5809</idno>
                <idno type="eissn">1607-7946</idno>
                <title level="j">Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics</title>
                <imprint>
                  <publisher>European Geosciences Union (EGU)</publisher>
                  <biblScope unit="volume">8</biblScope>
                  <biblScope unit="issue">6</biblScope>
                  <biblScope unit="pp">387-399</biblScope>
                  <date type="datePub">2001</date>
                </imprint>
              </monogr>
            </biblStruct>
          </sourceDesc>
          <profileDesc>
            <langUsage>
              <language ident="en">English</language>
            </langUsage>
            <textClass>
              <classCode scheme="halDomain" n="phys.astr.co">Physics [physics]/Astrophysics [astro-ph]/Cosmology and Extra-Galactic Astrophysics [astro-ph.CO]</classCode>
              <classCode scheme="halDomain" n="sdu.astr">Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Astrophysics [astro-ph]</classCode>
              <classCode scheme="halDomain" n="sdu.stu">Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences</classCode>
              <classCode scheme="halTypology" n="ART">Journal articles</classCode>
              <classCode scheme="halOldTypology" n="ART">Journal articles</classCode>
              <classCode scheme="halTreeTypology" n="ART">Journal articles</classCode>
            </textClass>
            <abstract xml:lang="en">
              <p>The performance of the ARPA-SMR Limited-area Ensemble Prediction System (LEPS), generated by nesting a limited-area model on selected members of the ECMWF targeted ensemble, is evaluated for two flood events that occurred during September 1992. The predictability of the events is studied for forecast times ranging from 2 to 4 days. The extent to which floods localised in time and space can be forecast at high resolution in probabilistic terms was investigated. Rainfall probability maps generated by both LEPS and ECMWF targeted ensembles are compared for different precipitation thresholds in order to assess the impact of enhanced resolution. At all considered forecast ranges, LEPS performs better, providing a more accurate description of the event with respect to the spatio-temporal location, as well as its intensity. In both flood cases, LEPS probability maps turn out to be a very valuable tool to assist forecasters to issue flood alerts at different forecast ranges. It is also shown that at the shortest forecast range, the deterministic prediction provided by the limited area model, when run in a higher-resolution configuration, provides a very accurate rainfall pattern and a good quantitative estimate of the total rainfall deployed in the flooded regions.</p>
            </abstract>
          </profileDesc>
        </biblFull>
      </listBibl>
    </body>
    <back>
      <listOrg type="structures">
        <org type="laboratory" xml:id="struct-62856" status="VALID">
          <orgName>Servizio Idro-Meteorologico ARPA Emilia Romagna</orgName>
          <orgName type="acronym">ARPA-SIM</orgName>
          <desc>
            <address>
              <addrLine>Viale Silvani 6, 40122 Bologna</addrLine>
              <country key="IT"/>
            </address>
          </desc>
          <listRelation>
            <relation active="#struct-315766" type="direct"/>
          </listRelation>
        </org>
        <org type="institution" xml:id="struct-30978" status="VALID">
          <idno type="ROR">https://ror.org/01111rn36</idno>
          <orgName>Alma Mater Studiorum Università di Bologna = University of Bologna [Bologne]</orgName>
          <orgName type="acronym">UNIBO</orgName>
          <desc>
            <address>
              <addrLine>Via Zamboni, 33 - 40126 Bologna</addrLine>
              <country key="IT"/>
            </address>
            <ref type="url">http://www.eng.unibo.it/</ref>
          </desc>
        </org>
        <org type="institution" xml:id="struct-44502" status="VALID">
          <idno type="ROR">https://ror.org/014w0fd65</idno>
          <orgName>European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts</orgName>
          <orgName type="acronym">ECMWF</orgName>
          <desc>
            <address>
              <addrLine>Shinfield Park,  RG2 9AX Reading</addrLine>
              <country key="GB"/>
            </address>
            <ref type="url">http://www.ecmwf.int</ref>
          </desc>
        </org>
        <org type="institution" xml:id="struct-315766" status="VALID">
          <orgName>ARPA Emilia-Romagna, Agenzia Regionale per la Protezione dell’Ambiente</orgName>
          <desc>
            <address>
              <addrLine>40122 Bologna</addrLine>
              <country key="IT"/>
            </address>
          </desc>
        </org>
      </listOrg>
    </back>
  </text>
</TEI>