Skill and relative economic value of medium-range hydrological ensemble predictions - Archive ouverte HAL Access content directly
Journal Articles Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions Year : 2006

Skill and relative economic value of medium-range hydrological ensemble predictions

Abstract

A hydrological ensemble prediction system, integrating a water balance model with ensemble precipitation forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Ensemble Prediction System (EPS), is evaluated for two Belgian catchments using verification methods borrowed from meteorology. The skill of the probability forecast that the streamflow exceeds a given level is measured with the Brier Skill Score. Then the value of the system is assessed using a cost-loss decision model. The verification results of the hydrological ensemble predictions are compared with the corresponding results obtained for simpler alternatives as the one obtained by using of the deterministic forecast of ECMWF which is characterized by a higher spatial resolution or by using of the EPS ensemble mean.
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Dates and versions

hal-00298726 , version 1 (18-06-2008)

Identifiers

  • HAL Id : hal-00298726 , version 1

Cite

E. Roulin. Skill and relative economic value of medium-range hydrological ensemble predictions. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 2006, 3 (4), pp.1369-1406. ⟨hal-00298726⟩

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