Prediction uncertainty of environmental change effects on temperate European biodiversity.
Carsten F. Dormann
(1)
,
Oliver Schweiger
(1)
,
Paul Arens
(2)
,
Isabel Augenstein
(1)
,
Stéphanie Aviron
(3, 4)
,
Debra Bailey
(3)
,
Jacques Baudry
(5, 6)
,
Regula Billeter
(7)
,
Rob Bugter
(8)
,
Roman Bukacek
(9)
,
Francoise Burel
(4)
,
Martin Cerny
(10)
,
Rafael de Cock
(11)
,
Gert de Blust
(12)
,
Riccardo Defilippi
(3)
,
Tim Diekotter
(7)
,
Jolanda Dirksen
(8)
,
Walter Durka
(1)
,
Peter J. Edwards
(13)
,
Mark Frenzel
(1)
,
Roman Hamersky
(9)
,
Frédéric Hendrickx
(14, 11)
,
Felix Herzog
(3)
,
Stefan Klotz
(1, 15, 16, 17, 18)
,
Beno Koolstra
(8)
,
Angela Lausch
(1)
,
Didier Le Coeur
(5)
,
Jan Liira
(19)
,
Jean-Pierre Maelfait
(14, 11)
,
Paul Opdam
(8)
,
Martina Roubalova
(10)
,
Agnès Schermann-Legionnet
(4)
,
Nicolas Schermann
(5)
,
Torsten Schmidt
(1)
,
Marinus J.M. Smulders
(1)
,
Marjan Speelmans
(14)
,
P. Simova
(9)
,
Jana Verboom
(8)
,
Walter van Wingerden
(8)
,
Marlin Zobel
(19)
1
UFZ -
Helmholtz Zentrum für Umweltforschung = Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research
2 PRI - Plant Research International
3 AGROSCOPE - Agroscope FAL Reckenholz
4 ECOBIO - Ecosystèmes, biodiversité, évolution [Rennes]
5 AMORIQUE - Unité de recherche SAD Armorique
6 CAREN - Centre Armoricain de Recherche en Environnement
7 ETH - Swiss Federal Institute of Technology
8 AGWR - Alterra Green World Research
9 NCA - Nature Conservation Authority
10 IFER - Institute of Forest Ecosystem Research
11 INBO - Research Institute for Nature and Forest
12 INBO
13 ETH - Institute of Integrative Biology
14 TEREC - Terrestrial Ecology Unit (TEREC)
15 IMPMC - Institut de minéralogie et de physique des milieux condensés
16 PEPS - PaleoEnvironnements et PaleobioSphere
17 Institut für Geowissenschaften,
18 Institute of Geosciences, University of Tübingen
19 Institute of Botany and Ecology
2 PRI - Plant Research International
3 AGROSCOPE - Agroscope FAL Reckenholz
4 ECOBIO - Ecosystèmes, biodiversité, évolution [Rennes]
5 AMORIQUE - Unité de recherche SAD Armorique
6 CAREN - Centre Armoricain de Recherche en Environnement
7 ETH - Swiss Federal Institute of Technology
8 AGWR - Alterra Green World Research
9 NCA - Nature Conservation Authority
10 IFER - Institute of Forest Ecosystem Research
11 INBO - Research Institute for Nature and Forest
12 INBO
13 ETH - Institute of Integrative Biology
14 TEREC - Terrestrial Ecology Unit (TEREC)
15 IMPMC - Institut de minéralogie et de physique des milieux condensés
16 PEPS - PaleoEnvironnements et PaleobioSphere
17 Institut für Geowissenschaften,
18 Institute of Geosciences, University of Tübingen
19 Institute of Botany and Ecology
Carsten F. Dormann
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Oliver Schweiger
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- PersonId : 831226
Stéphanie Aviron
- Fonction : Auteur
- PersonId : 183754
- IdHAL : stephanie-aviron
- ORCID : 0000-0002-8518-3920
- IdRef : 076965376
Jacques Baudry
- Fonction : Auteur
- PersonId : 1265208
- ORCID : 0000-0001-9324-970X
- IdRef : 029759595
Frédéric Hendrickx
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- PersonId : 831228
Felix Herzog
- Fonction : Auteur
- PersonId : 769904
- ORCID : 0000-0001-9472-4891
- IdRef : 191562688
Stefan Klotz
- Fonction : Auteur
- PersonId : 741444
- IdHAL : stefanklotz
- ORCID : 0000-0002-5682-4960
- IdRef : 116438509
Didier Le Coeur
- Fonction : Auteur
- PersonId : 831389
- ORCID : 0000-0002-2506-6618
Agnès Schermann-Legionnet
- Fonction : Auteur
- PersonId : 835109
Résumé
Observed patterns of species richness at landscape scale (gamma diversity) cannot always be attributed to a specific set of explanatory variables, but rather different alternative explanatory statistical models of similar quality may exist. Therefore predictions of the effects of environmental change (such as in climate or land cover) on biodiversity may differ considerably, depending on the chosen set of explanatory variables. Here we use multimodel prediction to evaluate effects of climate, land-use intensity and landscape structure on species richness in each of seven groups of organisms (plants, birds, spiders, wild bees, ground beetles, true bugs and hoverflies) in temperate Europe. We contrast this approach with traditional best-model predictions, which we show, using cross-validation, to have inferior prediction accuracy. Multimodel inference changed the importance of some environmental variables in comparison with the best model, and accordingly gave deviating predictions for environmental change effects. Overall, prediction uncertainty for the multimodel approach was only slightly higher than that of the best model, and absolute changes in predicted species richness were also comparable. Richness predictions varied generally more for the impact of climate change than for land-use change at the coarse scale of our study. Overall, our study indicates that the uncertainty introduced to environmental change predictions through uncertainty in model selection both qualitatively and quantitatively affects species richness projections.