Numerical simulations of the precipitation event observed during the MAP IOP2a: sensitivity to initial conditions
Résumé
Numerical simulations of the convective system observed during the MAP IOP2a have been performed with Meso-NH, using a threefold nesting technique with horizontal mesh-sizes of 32, 8 and 2km. The reference experiment initialized from the operational ECMWF analysis of 17 September 1999 12 UTC succeeds reasonably well in initiating the convective line over the Alpine foothills and reproducing its propagation towards the East. The sensitivity of these results to the reanalysis products is investigated. In the ECMWF MAP reanalysis, the lower atmosphere above Northern Italy is found considerably drier than in the operational analysis. As a consequence, convection is almost entirely inhibited in the mesoscale simulations based upon the reanalysis.
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