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Journal Articles Nature Year : 2012

Making sense of palaeoclimate sensitivity

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D. L. Royer
  • Function : Author

Abstract

Many palaeoclimate studies have quantified pre-anthropogenic climate change to calculate climate sensitivity (equilibrium temperature change in response to radiative forcing change), but a lack of consistent methodologies produces a wide range of estimates and hinders comparability of results. Here we present a stricter approach, to improve intercomparison of palaeoclimate sensitivity estimates in a manner compatible with equilibrium projections for future climate change. Over the past 65 million years, this reveals a climate sensitivity (in KW$^{−1}$ m$^2$) of 0.3-1.9 or 0.6-1.3 at 95% or 68% probability, respectively. The latter implies a warming of 2.2-4.8 K per doubling of atmospheric CO$_2$, which agrees with IPCC estimates
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Dates and versions

cea-00880704 , version 1 (21-10-2019)

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E. J. Rohling, A. Sluijs, H. A. Dijkstra, P. Köhler, R. S. W. van de Wal, et al.. Making sense of palaeoclimate sensitivity. Nature, 2012, 491 (7426), pp.683-691. ⟨10.1038/nature11574⟩. ⟨cea-00880704⟩
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