Reciprocal association between participation to a national election and the epidemic spread of COVID-19 in France: nationwide observational and dynamic modeling study. - Archive ouverte HAL Access content directly
Journal Articles European Journal of Public Health Year : 2021

Reciprocal association between participation to a national election and the epidemic spread of COVID-19 in France: nationwide observational and dynamic modeling study.

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Abstract

Objective: To investigate possible reciprocal associations between the intensity of the COVID-19 epidemic in France and the level of participation at national elections. Design: Observational study and dynamic modelling using a sigmoidal mixed effects model. Setting: All hospitals where patients were admitted for COVID-19. Participants: All admitted patients from March 18, 2020 to April 17, 2020. Main outcome measures: Abstention and admission rate for COVID-19. Results: Mean abstention rate in 2020 among departments was 52.5%+/-6.4 and had increased by a mean of 18.8% as compared with the 2014 election. There was a high degree of similarity of abstention between the two elections among the departments (p<0.001). Among departments with a high outbreak intensity before the election, those with a higher participation were not affected by a significantly higher number of COVID-19 admissions after the elections. The sigmoidal model fitted the data from the different departments with a high degree of consistency. The covariate analysis showed that a significant association between participation and number of admitted patients was observed for both elections (2020: B=-5.36, p<1e-9 and 2014: B=-3.15, p<1e-6) contradicting a direct specific causation of the 2020 election. Participation was not associated with the position of the inflexion point suggesting no effect in the speed of spread. Conclusions: Our results suggest that the surrounding intensity of the COVID-19 epidemic in France did not have any local impact on citizens participation to a national election. The level of participation to the 2020 election had no impact on the spread of the pandemic.

Dates and versions

hal-02995300 , version 1 (09-11-2020)

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Jean-David Zeitoun, Matthieu Faron, Sylvain Manternach, Jerome Fourquet, Marc Lavielle, et al.. Reciprocal association between participation to a national election and the epidemic spread of COVID-19 in France: nationwide observational and dynamic modeling study.. European Journal of Public Health, 2021, ⟨10.1101/2020.05.14.20090100⟩. ⟨hal-02995300⟩
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